Ecuador’s Turning Point: Security Crisis and Political Showdown Define Nation’s Future in 2025

A Nation at the Crossroads

Ecuador approaches one of its most decisive presidential elections amid record levels of drug gang violence and a stalled economy that’s leaving few resources to combat rising crime.

The Security Crisis

The nation’s peace has been shattered by drug trafficking and associated gang violence, dramatically illustrated in January 2024 when cartel members, armed with explosives, took television broadcasters hostage during a live broadcast.

The severity of the situation is reflected in the country’s homicide rate, which skyrocketed to 47 per 100,000 residents in 2023, up from just 6 per 100,000 in 2018. Two major gangs—the Choneros and the Lobos—working with Colombian, Mexican, and Albanian drug traffickers, have escalated their use of extreme violence, including decapitations, car bombings, and attacks on judges, prosecutors, journalists, and political candidates.

Political Response and Challenges

President Daniel Noboa has introduced the “Phoenix Plan,” which includes establishing a new intelligence unit, tactical weapons for security forces, new high-security prisons, and reinforced security at ports and airports. However, widespread corruption and the political influence of armed groups pose significant challenges to improving Ecuador’s security before the next election in May 2025.

Economic and Social Impact

The crisis has deeply affected the population, with 38% of Ecuadorians living beneath the poverty line, particularly affecting rural communities and minority groups. Armed groups’ extortion of civilians under threat of violence has exacerbated the situation, while the escalating violence threatens to deter international investments and reduce the government’s ability to provide key services.

Looking Ahead

The outcome of upcoming elections will be crucial for Ecuador’s future as the country battles escalating gang violence and organized crime amid institutional instability. The almost even split of nearly 90 percent of the electorate between the two main candidates reveals deep polarization, with the newly elected National Assembly reflecting this partisan fragmentation.