Ecuador at a Crossroads: Security Crisis and Political Uncertainty Shape Nation’s Future in 2025

A Nation in Crisis

Ecuador, once known for its relative peace, is now battling an unprecedented security crisis, marked by dramatic events such as the January 2024 hostage-taking of television broadcasters by cartel members.

Current Security Situation

The nation stands at a critical juncture as it approaches a crucial run-off election on April 13, 2025, between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González, while struggling to contain escalating gang violence and organized crime amid institutional instability.

The violence is particularly concentrated in the coastal provinces of Esmeraldas, Manabí, El Oro, and Guayas, with massacre victims increasing dramatically from 30 in 2022 to 834 in 2023.

Government Response and International Support

President Noboa has implemented the ‘Phoenix Plan,’ which includes establishing a new intelligence unit, providing tactical weapons for security forces, constructing new high-security prisons, and reinforcing security at ports and airports.

The crisis has drawn international attention, with Ecuador receiving visits from high-ranking U.S. officials and European port city mayors in early 2024, demonstrating global concern about the situation.

Humanitarian Impact

The deteriorating security situation has forced many Ecuadorians from their homes, with over 80,000 people internally displaced due to armed violence between January and October 2024. The crisis has deepened poverty, with 38% of Ecuadorians now living beneath the poverty line, while armed groups continue to extort civilians under the threat of violence.

Looking Ahead

The country faces significant challenges ahead, with political deadlock looming and security concerns escalating, potentially testing Ecuador’s governance for years to come. Adding to these challenges, the forecast El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring increased rainfall, potentially causing flooding in regions where half of the country’s population resides, risking further devastation to livelihoods and increasing the spread of diseases.