China’s Weather Crisis: How Technology and Policy Are Shaping Climate Resilience in 2025

Record-Breaking Climate Trends

2025 is predicted to be one of the three warmest years on record, with the potential to exceed the global mean surface temperature record set in 2024. China has proven particularly vulnerable to global climate change, experiencing a warming rate higher than the global average and increasingly frequent extreme weather events.

Current Climate Challenges

The impact of natural disasters in the first half of 2025 has been significant, affecting over 23 million people and causing direct economic losses of CNY 54.1 billion (USD 7.6 billion). Several provinces, including Henan, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi, are experiencing severe drought conditions, with high temperatures and low rainfall threatening agricultural production and water resources.

Technological Advancements in Weather Forecasting

Significant progress has been made in weather forecasting technology. The Fengwu system, developed by Shanghai AI Laboratory, has extended effective global weather forecasts beyond a 10-day window. Additionally, the Beijing Municipal Meteorological Service has launched the Lingxi AI tool, which combines real-time and historical weather data with local extreme-weather knowledge to provide risk warnings and recommendations.

Policy Response and Future Outlook

China has implemented the Action Plan on Early Warning for Climate Change Adaptation (2025-2027), establishing a shared system for tracking and predicting extreme weather, sharing disaster-preparedness knowledge, and improving regional cooperation on early warnings. However, experts suggest that a more ambitious policy response is needed to address escalating extreme weather, requiring a dramatically scaled-up, coordinated approach that leverages technological innovation and empowers local leadership.

There are positive signs of progress, as recent analysis shows that China’s clean power generation growth has, for the first time, led to a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions levels. CO2 emissions fell by 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, marking what could be a potentially significant turning point in China’s emissions trajectory.