Australian property market 2026 forecast: what to expect

Introduction: Why the australian property market 2026 forecast matters

The australian property market 2026 forecast is important for homeowners, investors and policy makers planning ahead. After price gains in 2024 and continued momentum into 2025, forecasts pointing to stronger growth in 2026 will influence borrowing decisions, rental markets and housing affordability. Credible forecasts from industry analysts and KPMG provide a picture of likely trends and city-level differences.

Main analysis: forecasts, drivers and city breakdown

Recent performance and near-term outlook

In 2024 house prices rose about 5.1% and units about 4.5%, delivering gains that have largely aligned with earlier forecasts. Analysts say lending conditions should support modest price growth through 2025, followed by stronger growth in 2026. A notable supply-side factor is that a downward shift in rental prices is expected to help restrain property growth, supporting a more balanced and sustainable pace over the next one to two years.

National and city forecasts

KPMG and other forecasters predict Australian property prices will continue rising through 2026. National house price growth is projected in the high single digits for 2026 (KPMG figures point to roughly 7.7%–8.2% in different summaries). City-level forecasts show considerable variation: Perth and Brisbane are among the strongest performers in some outlooks, while Canberra and Hobart show steadier, more moderate gains.

Selected city projections

• Perth: leads some forecasts with very strong growth — KPMG expects Perth house prices to rise as much as 12.8% in 2026, with units up around 11.6%.
• Brisbane: KPMG forecasts house prices up about 10.9% in 2026 (with continued growth into 2027).
• Sydney: identified in some outlooks as a major gain city in 2026, with forecasts around 7.8% growth for that year.
• Canberra and Hobart: more modest rises are expected — Canberra around 4.7% in 2026, Hobart houses about 5.4% and units 5.1%.

Conclusion: implications and what readers should watch

The australian property market 2026 forecast points to stronger national growth in 2026 but with clear city-by-city differences. Lending conditions, rental price movements and local market dynamics will shape outcomes and could temper headline growth into a more sustainable trajectory. For buyers and investors, the forecasts underline the importance of local market analysis, timing and financing strategies. Policymakers should monitor rental and lending signals to support balanced markets as growth accelerates next year.